Stocks broke below the day 45 low on Thursday.
This has caused the status of the daily cycle to be unclear.
The rally out of the day 45 low saw stocks close above both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA. That indicated that day 45 was the DCL. However, stocks were unable to deliver any bullish follow and break above the declining trend line. That along with the bullish divergence on the oscillators point to Thursday as being day 50 of a stretched daily cycle. What is clear is that stocks are on week 21 of their intermediate cycle. Stocks are clearly in the process of seeking out their ICL. Until stocks form a swing low and deliver a trend line break, we have to assume that stocks will continue their intermediate cycle decline.
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