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Sunday, April 30, 2023

[New post] MICA Daily | JPMorgan 首席分析師:第一共和銀行不是獨立事件

Site logo image MICA posted: " 第一共和銀行股價在週五的交易日盤後又再度上演驚人的暴跌秀,除了盤中下跌 40%之外,盤後繼續下跌 33%,創下一天內總共暴跌 62% 的新紀錄,對此,摩根大通( JPMorgan Chase )分析師 Bob Michele 在週五的 Bloomberg 訪談中便提到,他認為第一共和銀行的流動性問題不是區域銀行的個別事件,而是整個美國中小銀行的體系問題。 首先他指出美國區域銀行高度仰賴 FDIC 與 ​​FDHL 的流動性援助,前者是政府的中央機關,後者則是 11 間具備國家資金援助的銀行組" 區塊客

MICA Daily | JPMorgan 首席分析師:第一共和銀行不是獨立事件

MICA

May 1

第一共和銀行股價在週五的交易日盤後又再度上演驚人的暴跌秀,除了盤中下跌 40%之外,盤後繼續下跌 33%,創下一天內總共暴跌 62% 的新紀錄,對此,摩根大通( JPMorgan Chase )分析師 Bob Michele 在週五的 Bloomberg 訪談中便提到,他認為第一共和銀行的流動性問題不是區域銀行的個別事件,而是整個美國中小銀行的體系問題。

首先他指出美國區域銀行高度仰賴 FDIC 與 ​​FDHL 的流動性援助,前者是政府的中央機關,後者則是 11 間具備國家資金援助的銀行組成的聯盟,專門提供那些出售房屋貸款以及社區投資的區域銀行流動性,過去區域銀行都可以從中取得流動性,例如 Silvergate 以及 Signature 就從這兩個單位取得 100 億美元以及 36 億美元,即使有取得援助,但最後下場都是遭到接管。

過去寬鬆時代 FDIC 以及 FDHL 是很好的流動性提供者,區域銀行可以輕鬆調度資金,但現在已經無法使用這項工具,因為基準利率過高,流動性都是以 4.5% 年化利率計算,相較區域銀行房貸產品綜合下來僅有 2% 收益呈現入不敷出的狀態,因此區域銀行倒閉只是時間問題,他認為長期下來流動性肯定會出問題,因此第一共和銀行不是單一事件,隨著時間拉長會有更多銀行出現問題。


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