After more than doubling in value in 2023 and vastly outperforming traditional assets, bitcoin still has room to run according to several indicators and forecasts. Key metrics tracking miner flows, blockchain activity, and historical price trends all suggest bitcoin is far from overvalued, even after its 150% year-to-date gain.
Keypoints
- Bitcoin has surged over 150% in 2023, outperforming traditional assets by a large margin
- Key indicators like Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-Score, and Mayer Multiple suggest bitcoin is far from overvalued and could continue rallying in 2024
- Goldman Sachs expects a "significant uptick" in crypto trading volumes in the next 1-2 years
- Bitwise predicts bitcoin will hit a new all-time high of $80,000 in 2024, helped by a spot BTC ETF approval and bitcoin's halving event
- Bitwise also forecasts over $70 billion could flow into bitcoin ETFs in the next 5 years as they capture 1% of the total US ETF market
The Puell Multiple, which compares the daily bitcoin issuance value to its one-year average, sits at 1.53 currently. Readings above 4 have previously marked cycle peaks. Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score is at 1.6, far from the overvaluation zone above 8. And the Mayer Multiple, which measures bitcoin's price versus its 200-day moving average, is 1.4 - not yet in overbought territory above 2.4.
This all indicates bitcoin could continue trending upwards through 2024. Goldman Sachs seems to agree, recently forecasting a "significant uptick" in crypto trading volumes in the next 1-2 years as adoption increases.
2024 itself could be momentous for bitcoin if long-awaited spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) finally get approved by the SEC. Bitwise Asset Management predicts this could happen in early 2024 and has boldly forecast bitcoin hitting $80,000 if it does. The launch of spot ETFs coupled with bitcoin's supply-cutting "halving" event in May 2024 form a perfect storm that could propel prices to new highs.
Bitwise also estimates spot bitcoin ETFs could capture 1% of the total $7 trillion US ETF market - over $70 billion in inflows. Even a fraction of this entering bitcoin markets could set off fireworks.
With bitcoin appearing undervalued based on multiple metrics and fundamentals aligned for a bullish 2024, the stage seems set for the top cryptocurrency to continue surging to new all-time highs through next year.
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