Bitcoin exploded past $42,000 in a historic rally, smashing through the key resistance level and igniting investor euphoria. With a 150% surge this year, the flagship cryptocurrency is nearly 62% closer to its all-time high than it was just a few months ago.
Is Altcoin Season Here?
Ethereum, the largest altcoin, crossed $2,200 earlier today, and analysts are watching for breakouts at $2,600 and $3,000, potentially in short order. Meanwhile, Solana, surging 15% this week, now targets $65. Analysts whisper $75 soon, with $100 in next year's bull run a possibility.
Could this be the start of a long-awaited altcoin rally? With Bitcoin blazing a trail and Ethereum and Solana breaking ranks, the bulls might be back in town.
According to Coingecko data, top 10 altcoins, such as Cardano (ADA) or Dogecoin (DOGE) saw price up by at least 2.2% in the last 24 hours. Some of the biggest gainers are Ordinals (ORDI), Luna Classic (LUNC), SushiSwap (SUSHI), memecoin Pepe (PEPE), SuperRare (RARE), and Pendle (PENDLE).
Binance Coin (BNB) increased by 1.8%; but in comparison to other cryptocurrencies which have soared in recent months, it's still grappling with the fallout from a tumultuous last two quarters. Last month, the settlement between Binance and the U.S. authorities had the coin drop to below $260.
Binance still faces a number of regulatory challenges, particularly from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This might impede BNB to rebound any time soon. The legal system is still taking aim at cryptos, and making it hard for some to rally.
Spot ETFs and Bitcoin Halving on Focus
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are undoubtedly the key focus for institutional investors and cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Bloomberg experts remain optimistic, betting on a 90% chance of approval by January 10, 2024.
Besides, a number of estimates suggest a potential Bitcoin price range of $50K-$60K within a year in the favorable scenario of the SEC approving one or multiple spot proposals.
Galaxy Digital predicts that $14 billion USD will flow into the Bitcoin Spot ETF fund in the first year, followed by $27 billion and $39 billion in subsequent years. This influx will be sourced from a small portion of asset management funds' $48 trillion portfolio. If this scenario happens, Bitcoin's price could surge 74% within a year (January 2025), reaching approximately $60,000.
Coinshare predicts that roughly 10% of investment management companies will allocate 1% of their assets to Bitcoin, potentially driving the price to around $58,000.
Glassnode anticipates approximately $70 billion to be poured into the Bitcoin Spot ETF. They believe that for every $1 invested, Bitcoin's capitalization increases by around $3, implying a $210 million boost from the $70 billion influx. This would represent a 27% increase from the current $778 million capitalization.
In addition to spot ETFs, crypto members also look for the next bitcoin halving set for April or May next year. While this has always been good in the past, there is no way to know what will happen this time. Bitcoin is still leading the market, but that could also change.
Bitcoin halving is programmed to occur approximately every four years or after every 210,000 blocks. During this event, the reward that miners receive for adding a new block to the blockchain is halved. As the supply decreases, and if demand remains constant or increases, basic economic principles suggest that the price could be positively impacted.
Previous Bitcoin halving events have been associated with remarkable price increases. Specifically, the latest halving made Bitcoin surge from about $$8,787 to above $67,400 several months after the event.
While there is no guarantee that this pattern will continue, the historical data suggests that Bitcoin halving events are a significant factor in the cryptocurrency's price movements. History might rhythm in favor of Bitcoin's long-term growth, regardless of the SEC's decision on spot Bitcoin ETFs.
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