"I think it's the worst Boston sports trade in my lifetime. What's amazing is they psyched themselves out with the long term. They just got scared. They overthought it.
They looked at all this data of offensive players in their 30's tailing off. Maybe their power peaked? Maybe injuries? There're a lot of examples , and I agree with this logic.
Where they whiffed, where if you watched Mookie Betts play, week after week, this guy was one of the most extraordinary athletes in the history of Boston sports."
Bill Simmons, August 2023
I don't follow baseball. I follow Simmons, and assume he's right about all these things. And this is what makes base rates difficult. If it were obvious and easy we wouldn't note it. If it were logical, we'd just call it normal.
But it's not. It's difficult. It's confusing. How does a team pick the "once in a generation" talent when that proclamation rises so often? What's the cost to miss one?
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